Investing all your money in Bitcoin is a bad decision...with a fantastic outcome.
A reliable and repeatable decision making process that leads to good outcomes over time - That's what you want.
Let's unpack this.
Putting all your money on red and then losing to the bank...That's a bad process and a bad outcome.
This shit's on you. Shouldn't have bet the farm.
If the odds are in your favor though, you gotta play the game. Because over a long enough time horizon you will win.
Short term, however, you might lose.
Bad outcome from good process is just part of the game.
The worst thing is actually to have a bad process lead to a good outcome. It tricks you into thinking you deserved success, when in reality, it was just dumb luck.
Good decisions are incredibly varied.
But bad decisions always seem to be the same.
Full of emotions and biases.
The goal then, is to systematically rid your decision making process of both.
Write down assumptions and ruthlessly question them. Break everything down to first principles:
• How do I know this is true?
• What if I did the opposite?
• How can I back this up?
A good process can lead to bad outcomes. But a bad process will invariably lead to bad outcomes over time.